On August 4th, 2010, Alex ‘A-Bomb from A-Rod’ Rodriguez hit his 600th home run in his MLB career and became the youngest member of the seven players in the 600 club. After hitting 599 on July 22nd, A-Rod slumped (in terms of home-run progression and average) for 12 games. Number 600 developed into a grand distraction; Michael Kay had to “layer” every A-Rod at bat as if it was going to be number 600, the umpire would deliver the specially marked baseballs to the pitcher and of the most inconvenient occurrence—the Yankees went 6-6 during A-slump.
The Yankees are tied for the best record in Major League Baseball with 67-40; unfortunately they are tied with their divisional rivals the Red Sox—excuse me, I meant to say the Rays. A-rod’s drought was not the sole reason why the Yankees lost, but if the clean-up hitter goes on a 2-24 drought—not even Gatorade can quench that thirst. To get some breathing room, the A-599 had to tell the media to “get comfortable” because he was not going to be A-600 for a while. What do you know—the next game, he hits his 600.
Now all the Yankee business aside, the big news lies under Barry Bonds’ comment, "Congratulations Alex on hitting your 600th home run today, welcome to the club. Stay healthy and focused, you only have 163 to go. I'll be watching and rooting for you along the way. Good Luck."
Barry Bonds is rooting for A-600 to become A-763? Do I believe it? No, not really—it’s just good P.R., and hey… can you blame him? Being the home run king with a tainted mark of HGH on your bat kind of hinders any public relations*.
But beyond that; we have arguably the real home run king (Hank Aaron) saying the following; "When you reach that plateau, no matter where it is, whether you're playing in the majors or the minors, it's a tremendous accomplishment. It means an awful lot to whoever reaches this achievement. ... It really doesn't matter what kind of asterisk you put by it -- 600 homers is something special."
And it is special. Extremely special. So special that the debate goes to an even more special platform—will A-600 get to A-763 and become the home run king?
Tim Kurkjian, on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight mentioned that there is no doubt A-600 will evolve into A-700, and at one point, Kurkjian even thought he’d become A-800, but not even Kurkjian knows if he’ll surpass Barry Bonds* (only to become Alex Rodriguez*).
Well let’s see what we got in his numbers. By not counting 1994, (A-Rod’s 17 game, zero homer season), he has averaged 37.5 home runs per season. Or we could even take it a step further and not count his 1995 season where he hit 5 home runs in 48 games—then his average would bump up to 39.7. A flawed way to calculate how many seasons it would take A-Rod to get pass Bonds would be to divide 163 (home runs left to be the leader) by 39.7 (average per season), which would be about 4.1 seasons. Since he is 35 years old, I think it’s safe to say that he has about another 5 or 6 years left in him.
But that method of calculating how long it would take him is flawed because he is not as dominant as he used to be; the last two seasons—he hit 35 and 30 home runs. This season, he is on pace to hit less than 30 home runs (which he hasn’t done since 1997 in the Mariners!). The exhausting search of HGH in America’s past time might or might not have affected A-Rod’s performance drastically, but if it hasn’t—then the umpires have to stop putting some kryptonite on the balls. During the 3 seasons he claimed he used the enhancements, he hit 52, 57 and 47 home runs—that’s his highest 3-year average in his career. And after the steroid drama, he is approaching his lowest 3-year average (again, this is without counting his first two seasons where he played less than 50 games).
A-600 will probably average about 30 home runs for the rest of his career (give or take 5 homers each season), and if that’s the case, it’ll average him 5.4 seasons to beat the record. So there are plenty of A-Bombs ahead of us, but how long will he be the king before Pujols comes around?
Pujols is up to 393, and he only 30 years-old. And unlike A-Rod, Pujols has consistently been hitting homers since he was 21when he hit 37 homers in his rookie season. Give Pujols eleven years, and I guarantee he will reach the 800 mark (if he doesn’t get severely injured like Griffey).
Once that happens, the home run kings will be the following:
(1) Albert Pujols
(2) Alex Rodriguez*
(3) Barry Bonds*
(4) Hank Aaron
9 comments:
Some interesting points (and quips!). You must factor into your HGH discussion that we cannot possibly measure an enhancement's effect on home run productivity. You are correct to point out that his three confessed years of usage are his most productive. However, they may have also been the peak three years of his career regardless. You cannot say it was purely the absence of HGH that lead to a decrease in the following seasons- age certainly has to factor in. Obviously, the performance enhancers made a difference, but we cannot possibly tell the extent of pop they added to his swing (in terms of how many less home runs he would have had without them).
I will say that Pujols taking the home run title would be great for baseball (if his character and integrity remain in tact). Pujols is a class act, and he takes his title as the best player in the world very seriously. He works to keep a clean image. For instance, he has stated that he never allows himself to be alone with women (within reason, of course) for fear of rape accusations. Pujols is the type of man that would reinstate the majesty (as opposed to the muscle) in home runs.
Thank you for your comment. I am not saying that HGH was the sole reason to A-Rod's decline to his home run productivity--I'm saying that it has stained his image to the point where a decline of home run productivity allows fans and analysts to pin the tail on the HGH. Of course his age plays a factor--but he is not a 38 year old player, 35 is still young. When a player hits 30, he is at the prime of his prime. A-rod's declination has something to do with HGH. Whether it's by the direct usage or psychological factor--he has been effected.
As for Pujols, you're right--he's going to positively affect the majesty of the game. His name will not only clarify the dirt on the home run crown, but it'll also declare of the end of the steroid era in terms of most prestigious awards.
Nice dude I think A-rod's whole 600 debacle is the lone reason for the yanks' slump. Yeah, like you said it doesn't help when your 4 hitter goes way down in average but if you watched the games you felt like you weren't watching a Yankee game any more. It felt like you were watching the A-rod #600 show and every time it was over the talk wasn't about whether the Yanks won or lost it was that A-rod didn't hit his home run again. Every few innings they displayed more and more stats about how A-rod has taken the longest to hit it or displayed questions about whether the public will accept #600 or not. Now, with #600 out of the way, the Yanks can get back to business as usual.
As for his legacy, A-rod will go down I think as the almost redemption of baseball...ten times more likable and accepted than Bonds, but will still leave the public wanting a baseball Messiah. It will be a good transition to when Pujols comes to redeem the baseball world...if he is clean that is.
Thanks for the comment Adam; and you bring up an interesting point about how he will be ten times more likable than Barry Bonds. A-Rod has always had a similar stature and the HGH enhancement did not physically alter him as grand as it did to Bonds. Bonds went from Pee Wee Herman to Arnold SchWARzenegger. I think A-Rod will be a better face for baseball, but again--that's only until Pujols goes yard another 400 times.
Let's not pretend Barry Bonds wasn't already a great player before what is widely thought to be his home run years (beginning in the late 90's). He did win MVP awards in '90, '92, and '93, slugging 33, 34, and 46 home runs respectively. And that .677 slugging percentage in '93 is higher than anything A-Rod has ever put up. A Pee-Wee Herman Bonds was not.
I would also have to disagree with the whole "ten times more likable and accepted than Bonds" statement. Now, I won't try to pretend that the media ever got along with Barry, or that he showed much friendship towards anybody, but the fans in San Francisco loved him. Granted, they were the only ones, but they cheered his every home run there. A-Rod? Well he's frequently been the laughingstock of the media. Whether it's slapping the ball out of somebody's mitt, kissing his own reflection, or opting out of his contract during a world series game, A-Rod has been far from a class act. A-Rod has also set the bar for selfishness by signing the two richest contracts in baseball history. Bully for him, he's a great player and it's not his fault owners gave him every bit of that money, but how much do you think the fans down in Texas enjoyed watching the A-Rod show for 3 years while the team was hamstrung by his contract so badly that they could afford few other quality players around him. And remember how I said Giants fans at least loved Bonds? Very few Yankee fans that I've ever talked to (and believe me, I know an awful lot of them) have ever told me how much they love A-Rod. Typically his name is met with eye-rolling and head shaking in conversations, or remarks such as this one that I've received recently in regards to A-Rod: "You're jealous you don't have the douchebag on your team lol. [facebook]" Now, does A-Rod at least seem friendlier to the media than Bonds? Most surely yes. But is he 10 times more liked or accepted? Is he a good face for the game right now? I'm sorry, but those answers are no, no, a thousand times no. The game is evolving, pitching is returning to dominance, and young aces are the face of the game all across the country. If anything, A-Rod's still a dark reminder of where baseball has come from, and quite frankly, I'm pretty sure nobody outside of NYY fans cares one bit about him anymore.
Otherwise, Taha, I think you made a well done argument. It would be very interesting though if you could formulate some kind of model predicting the production from players such as A-Rod and Pujols in the future. I mean, so you say A-Rod will probably average 30 home runs a year for the rest of his career, but why do you think this is true? I'm sure you've seen his past 3 seasons: 54, 35, 30. And despite what you say about his being "only" 35, that is well past the prime years of every baseball player (please note that players such as Clemens and Bonds are very much exceptions to this aging, but they are also long suspected of steroids in those years). Players decline in those years, regardless of who they were or what they did before. A-Rod's better than that you say? Look at Manny Ramirez, a similar slugger from the same era. A longtime feared home run basher and punished steroid user, Ramirez saw his power decline down to 20 home runs the year he turned 35. And that was after averaging 41 home runs the previous 3 seasons. Only once has Ramirez hit more than 20 home runs since the age of 35, and that's with him having played a much less rigorous position AND he hasn't had a major hip surgery like A-Rod had in spring '09.
Overall, my point is I would gladly accept your estimate of 30 (+- 5 homers) a season for A-Rod the rest of his career if you had good statistical support for why he'll hit that many from here on out. I based my decline numbers on the standard player progression, while making a player comparison and pointing out the injuries. But what (if any) reasons did Tim Kurkjian provide? Are you looking at the monstrous amount of lineup protection that he's receiving in the current Yankees lineup? This is lineup support that easily makes it look like A-Rod's Texas days had him in a lineup of little-leaguers. Or maybe you're basing it off the smallness of the ballpark he's playing in nowadays. Whatever your supporting reasons, including them along with stats is a terrific way to make your writing stand out, separate from the rest, and catch the attention of any company reading your blog.
Great comments Mike! Well, Barry Bonds definitely looked extremely skinny during his earlier years—yes he did put up numbers, but his 46 homers jumped to a record 73 in 2001. It made a difference. Was Bonds great? Was he amazing? YES! But was he 73 homers-worthy prior to the enhancements, definitely not.
As for Bonds being accepted during the record-breaking and media; of course he was. The fans wanted him to break the record; the fans wanted the glory just as much as he did. Plus, each of those Bonds balls would cost a ridiculous amount on eBay.
Now, your point is that A-Rod is not a better image/will not be liked more than Bonds; and I have to disagree with that. A-Rod is not a fan favorite in New York. Nor is A-Rod media-lovable. Nor is HGH free throughout his career. But he also hasn’t broken the record yet. Once he does (if he does) break the record, HE WILL BE THE FAN FAVORITE. There’s no way around it. If Manny came back to the Sox and broke the record—no matter what he did to your club, you’ll love every single shot he hit over the green monster. Fans have a short-term memory and positive emotions trump negative ones (or am I too much of an optimist?).
As for why A-Rod is not as big of player in New York than other stars; well, Derek Jeter is the purest American baseball franchise player—and any star beside him that has a blemish, will look ever worse. Having black against grey does not stand out as much as black against white.
But back to the real point of the article; will he 30 home runs (plus/minus 5) for the next 5 or 6 seasons? I don’t know. Of course, the hitters’ park in New York helps him (we could probably add more if he was a lefty playing NY), but A-Rod has a lot of flexibility in NY. No matter what part of the line-up you put him in, he will get pitched to and his supporting cast will apply the needed pressure on the pitcher to pitch strikes. But there are other reasons he would be able to hit a consistent amount of home runs; he has a sufficient amount of hitters around to bring in runs (so he can focus on hitting it out of the park more), and he finally has the burden off his shoulders of not performing in the clutch of playoffs.
But again; all of these stats are speculations and A-Rod does not have a definitive pattern to project his future numbers on—we’ll have to wait and see.
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